Here are my predictions and analysis for:
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
CHRISTINE BARANSKI as Diane Lockhart in THE GOOD WIFE
A perennial Emmy favorite, Baranski has gotten nominated every year for her role as Diane Lockhart since the show's first season in 2009-2010. I don't watch The Good Wife but I hear she's better a standout in the show's dynamic cast this year, so she has an excellent chance of making it back in again. She may not ever win, since The Good Wife's buzz is fading overall, but I'll predict her to at least get nominated every year until she doesn't.
ANNA GUNN as Skyler White in BREAKING BAD
Gunn had her best season yet as Skyler, the troubled wife of Walter White. She was finally able to break into this category last year, proving that voters are definitely fans of the show. Should she submit the episode "Fifty-One" in which she finally breaks down from all the stress heaped upon her, she has a very good shot of winning the Emmy come September.
CHRISTINA HENDRICKS as Joan Harris in MAD MEN
Another perennial nominee, Hendricks has been nominated every year since 2010 and has become one of the only actors from the show the Emmys still like, along with Jon Hamm and Elisabeth Moss. Hendricks definitely didn't have her best season this year, but I doubt they'll notice enough to not nominate her anyway. She's also an attractive actress being voted on by males primarily, so she's a near-guarantee.
ELIZABETH McGOVERN as Cora Crawley in DOWNTON ABBEY
Now that McGovern has dropped down to the Supporting Actress category, she'll have a much easier time getting a nomination. Back when Downton Abbey was considered a miniseries, she was nominated in the Movie/Miniseries Lead Actress category for this role, but she did not get a nomination when she submitted in Drama Lead Actress last year. I'm not the biggest fan of her character but a lot of critics have singled her out as being good this year so she'll probably get in.
MONICA POTTER as Kristina Braverman in PARENTHOOD
One of the biggest acting stories to come out of this TV seasons was Potter's performance in season 4 of Parenthood. Her character Kristina was stricken with cancer and had many critics calling her performance brave and unlike anything else anyone was doing on television. She hasn't been nominated before for her performance but I think the buzz is too strong for her to not get in. She could even be a frontrunner to win.
MAGGIE SMITH as Violet Crawley in DOWNTON ABBEY
Maggie Smith could fart into a pillow and have that be her only appearance in the entire season and she would still get nominated for her performance. That's how much the Academy loves her as the wisecracking granny on Downton Abbey. I didn't watch much of the show this year but based on previous seasons she probably had one or two good episodes to submit. She is a guarantee in this category, especially since she won last year.
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Unlike many categories this year, I feel really comfortable with the six I've predicted here. Archie Panjabi is the biggest snub I'm predicting since she won in 2010 and has been nominated every year ever since, but I've heard that her character was one of the worst parts of this season of The Good Wife, so I think she'll be pushed out this year. Morena Baccarin could get swept in with a big Homeland wave but she's not the best actress so I have doubts. I suppose Joanne Froggatt could get in again for Downton Abbey but I heard she had a weaker season than last year. One (or several) of the Game of Thrones actresses could get in if they really go for it this year, but there may be too much vote-splitting. I can't see any other actresses happening here.
Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.
Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.
Part 1: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Part 2: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Part 8: Variety Series
Michelle Fairley should get nominated, and the winner should be either Fairley or Anna Gunn.
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