2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

JONATHAN BANKS as Mike Ehremantraut in BREAKING BAD

Banks had his best season yet as Walter White's business partner-turned-nemesis Mike Ehrmantraut.  Much like Giancarlo Esposito's nomination last year, I think Banks will get the breakout Breaking Bad supporting actor slot.  If enough voters are watching the show, they'll know that Banks was even better than co-star Aaron Paul this year, and if he submits the "Say My Name" episode he has a good shot of winning.  The nomination is the biggest hurdle, though.

PETER DINKLAGE as Tyrion Lannister in GAME OF THRONES

Permanently a fan favorite, Dinklage's performance as lovable imp Tyrion Lannister remains the show's most outstanding.  It's also the most showy performance among the dozens upon dozens of cast members, so the Emmys have been receptive towards him.  They gave him this award in 2011 for the show's first season and even got in for  relatively little material last year so he'll definitely get in again this year.  He's always a contender to win.

MANDY PATINKIN as Saul Berenson in HOMELAND

One of the most inexplicable omissions from last year was Patinkin in this category.  The show managed to win Best Drama Series, Lead Actor, Lead Actress and Writing while Patinkin didn't even get a nomination.  Regardless, I think the buzz for Homeland will be even bigger this year, and Patinkin will easily get swept in with the love.  He has multiple tapes he could submit this year and he's a legend, so he too has a good shot of winning.

AARON PAUL as Jesse Pinkman in BREAKING BAD

Despite being the youngest actor of this group, Paul has actually won the most Emmys with 2, both of which were for Breaking Bad.  He is the reigning champ in this category so they clearly love him and his performance.  Granted, he didn't have his best season but it won't matter since it has almost become a default at this point to nominate him.  He will likely be getting his best material ever as Breaking Bad enters its final eight episodes and will probably receive Emmy #3 for it.

COREY STOLL as Rep. Peter Russo in HOUSE OF CARDS

Easily the best part of House of Cards' shaky first season, Stoll should ride to a nomination if enough voters watched the show.  His storyline was a good alternative to Frank's and proved that he was capable of potentially carrying his own show.  If he were to submit "Chapter 11", he will be very hard to beat, as the episode was practically tailor-made to win Emmys.  The hardest part, like with Banks, will be actually getting a nomination.

SAM WATERSTON as Charlie Skinner in THE NEWSROOM

This is by far my shakiest prediction at the moment, which is saying something considering Waterston is a TV legend.  Like House of Cards, The Newsroom had a very up-and-down season but it also essentially got trashed by critics.  Regardless, I haven't read any negativity aimed at Waterston's performance as Charlie.  Even if none of the voters watched The Newsroom, they will likely Waterston out of sheer nostalgia for his past roles.

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This is a really tough category to predict this year, despite a few relative locks.  There are so many worthy contenders that could take the place of almost anyone I'm predicting, including Nikolaj Coster-Waldau for Game of Thrones, Rob James-Collier for Downton Abbey, John Slattery for Mad Men, Noah Emmerich for The Americans, Jim Carter for Downton Abbey, etc.  The list goes on and on.  That's why I won't beat myself up too much if I'm horribly wrong about this category since it always tends to be the biggest wildcard.  Anything could happen.  For all I know, the biggest story from Emmy nomination morning could be AARON PAUL SNUBBED.  We shall see.

Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.

Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.

Also, read my predictions and analysis of other categories:

Part 1: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Part 2: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Part 3: Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Part 4: Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Part 5: Lead Actor and Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

Part 6: Supporting Actor and Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

Part 7: Reality-Competition Program & Reality Host

Part 8: Variety Series