Here is my prediction and analysis of:
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
ZOOEY DESCHANEL as Jess Day in NEW GIRL
Wrapping up her second season as Jess, the lovable quirk, Deschanel will likely get another nomination for her performance. She was nominated last year in this category and New Girl only got better in its second season so she seems like a relatively safe bet. Granted, most of the buzz has been on co-star Jake Johnson and her role has decreased to a more ensemble-friendly level, but she is still the most important member of the series. Not a lock, but pretty safe.
LENA DUNHAM as Hannah Horvath in GIRLS
After yet another buzzy season, Dunham is still one of Hollywood's brightest young talents, almost singlehandedly directing, writing and acting in Girls. After making a splash with FOUR nominations last year (in Series, Lead Actress, Writing and Directing) she is clearly someone the Emmys are paying attention to and will likely continue to notice. This year, Dunham was embraced at the Golden Globes, winning Lead Actress in addition to a series win. She is a definite frontrunner to win this year.
EDIE FALCO as Jackie Peyton in NURSE JACKIE
One of the only "Showtime actresses" to get more than one nomination, Falco is clearly an Emmy darling. She won for Nurse Jackie's first season despite her role not being comedic and she's been nominated ever since. Nurse Jackie managed to break through with another nomination in Supporting Actress for scene-stealer Merritt Wever, so voters are clearly watching. With very few contenders in her style of acting in this category, I have a feeling she'll get her fourth consecutive nomination.
TINA FEY as Liz Lemon in 30 ROCK
Fey is a modern-day Emmy darling, garnering nominations in this category for six consecutive years. She also won for the show's second season in addition to 30 Rock winning three Best Comedy Series wins. With the show ending, Emmy voters will likely wish to nominate Fey one last time and potentially give her a departing win. The series ended in January, which may have a recency effect on awareness, but I'm not too worried about her slot here.
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS as Vice President Selina Meyer in VEEP
Perhaps more than anyone else in this category, JLD is the Emmy Queen, winning Emmys for three different series: Seinfeld, The New Adventures of Old Christine and Veep. Winning this category last year, she is probably the biggest lock for a nomination, especially considering her show is currently airing new episodes on HBO. Veep has been yet another showcase for the sitcom legend, drawing extra comedic effect through her profanity. There is a good chance she'll get a repeat win here.
AMY POEHLER as Leslie Knope in PARKS AND RECREATION
Poehler has been nominated in this category for the past three years, but has never won. Additionally, she got nominations in Supporting Actress in 2008 and 2009 for Saturday Night Live, meaning she has been nominated at the Emmys for five consecutive years. She continues to be a favorite among critics, getting nominations at this year's Critics Choice and TCA Awards. Though she doesn't have a tape as good as last year's "Win, Lose or Draw", she's still in the running to get a long-overdue win.
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This is a rather crowded category, but I went with six of last year's nominees. Last year had seven nominees, including the six I'm predicting this year and Mike & Molly's Melissa McCarthy. Though McCarthy has turned into a box office star, I don't get the feeling Emmy voters are really watching Mike & Molly, so she'll likely be out this year. Other contenders include Laura Dern for Enlightened, Mindy Kaling for The Mindy Project and Portia de Rossi for Arrested Development. Critics have singled out Dern and Kaling's performances and de Rossi could've been a nominee if she submitted in Supporting Actress, but she's still in the mix here.
Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.
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