2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Lead Actress in a Drama Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

CLAIRE DANES as Carrie Mathison in HOMELAND

The reigning champion in this category, Danes is one of the biggest locks on Emmy nomination morning.  Though she didn't have as many standout moments in season 2 compared to season 1, she is still playing one of the most fascinating characters on television and deserves to have her frontunner status.  She'll probably win this category again this year and I can't say it wouldn't be deserved, much like her co-star Damian Lewis.

2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Lead Actor in a Drama Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

STEVE BUSCEMI as Nucky Thompson in BOARDWALK EMPIRE

Back in 2011, a lot of awards prognosticators had Buscemi pegged as the winner of this category after wins at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards.  He ended up losing to Bryan Cranston.  Regardless, he got nominated again in 2012 despite fading buzz for the show.  Now in its third season, Boardwalk Empire is probably going to get even less nominations this year but Buscemi is such a beloved actor in the industry that I really can't see them dropping him.  Maybe next year, but not now.

2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

CHRISTINE BARANSKI as Diane Lockhart in THE GOOD WIFE

A perennial Emmy favorite, Baranski has gotten nominated every year for her role as Diane Lockhart since the show's first season in 2009-2010.  I don't watch The Good Wife but I hear she's better a standout in the show's dynamic cast this year, so she has an excellent chance of making it back in again.  She may not ever win, since The Good Wife's buzz is fading overall, but I'll predict her to at least get nominated every year until she doesn't.

2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

JONATHAN BANKS as Mike Ehremantraut in BREAKING BAD

Banks had his best season yet as Walter White's business partner-turned-nemesis Mike Ehrmantraut.  Much like Giancarlo Esposito's nomination last year, I think Banks will get the breakout Breaking Bad supporting actor slot.  If enough voters are watching the show, they'll know that Banks was even better than co-star Aaron Paul this year, and if he submits the "Say My Name" episode he has a good shot of winning.  The nomination is the biggest hurdle, though.

2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Variety Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:

VARIETY SERIES

THE COLBERT REPORT (Comedy Central)

The Colbert Report has been notoriously snubbed of the win year after year in this category and that will probably continue this year.  It has been nominated every year since 2006 and won the Emmy for Best Writing in a Variety Series in 2008 and 2010.  Voters clearly like the show enough to keep nominating it for so long but it'll might have to take The Daily Show dropping out for it to finally get that win.

2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Reality-Competition Program & Reality Host

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Today I'm posting two categories.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:

REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM

THE AMAZING RACE (CBS)

This awards hog will easily get in again this year after winning NINE AWARDS FROM THE PAST TEN YEARS in this category.  It's unclear if voters simply don't like/watch any other reality show on television, if they're just name-checking the show, or if it really is the best every single year, but there's no way it'll get snubbed this year.  It will probably win it's 10th award in September.

The Bling Ring (S. Coppola, 2013)

     There seems to be a trend in film this year involving the inherent horribleness of this generation of young teens and twentysomethings.  Spring Breakers showed how careless the MTV generation is in regard to their own lives, highlighting how quickly a penchant for danger and excitement can lead to life-altering consequences.  Most of the audience reception surrounding that film was negative, since many simply saw Selena Gomez and Vanessa Hudgens on the poster, saw that it was about Spring Break and expected a good time.  They failed to understand that the film was holding a mirror up to the audience with the message of "look at what our young society has become."  I expect many of that same crowd went into The Bling Ring with similar expectations.  They saw Emma Watson acting sexy in the trailer, saw that it was about a group of teen burglars who rob celebrity houses, and assumed it would be some entertaining heist film, like Ocean's 11 meets Mean Girls.  Unfortunately for them, this is another film with a specific thesis aimed at the fame-obssessed subset of today's youth.